Every year, like clockwork, widespread icing conditions force pilots to take a hard look at how they analyze weather, weigh risk and exercise judgment. Sometimes the unlucky fall victim to a smugness that stems from having survived icing encounters in the past.

Sometimes, however, ice strategy is little more than wishful thinking. Consider the case of a pilot of a Part 135 Aero Commander 500B, who was concerned about the icing conditions for his flight to Hays, Kan. He was concerned enough to get two weather briefings. Neither was very encouraging. Both briefings advised of a Sigmet for moderate to severe icing in freezing rain below 4,500 feet. …